BTC course analysis – China tears down the course

After rising to EUR 1,003.38 (USD 1,067.75), the share price plummeted to EUR 901.56 (USD 959.40). Since then it has been able to catch up slightly and stands at EUR 950.00 (USD 1,010.94).

How does the price fall affect the long-term forecast?

Throughout the week, the price followed the bullish trend and rose to 1,003.38 EUR (1,067.75 USD).
On February 9, the price plummeted to a minimum of EUR 901.56 (USD 959.40).
The price recovered slightly, so that it now stands at 950.00 EUR (1,010.94 USD).
Let’s go to the recapitulation: Like last month, the Bitcoin price reached values above 1,000 EUR – only to plunge dramatically into the basement. The underlying causes have already been reported here. The price was torn thereby again under the blue registered upper trend.

Since then, the price has recovered somewhat: It stands again at a smooth 950 EUR (1,010.94 USD) and thus again above EMA200. At the moment it seems to be above EMA100, but the bulls and bears are still fighting for it. The price was already above the EMA100 today, now it has to show how strongly it can serve as support.

After the MACD (second panel from above) plunged into extremely negative territory with the big price drop, it was able to scramble up again and is positive again since today. However, we will have to see if this bullish signal continues, as the MACD line (blue) is below the signal (orange), which suggests a slight price correction in the future.

With 55 the RSI (third panel from above) is bullish.

The Chaikin Oscillator (lower panel) is positive and thus confirms the bullish picture mediated by the RSI and partly the MACD.

The 60min chart therefore looks rather bullish from the price development. Nevertheless, the current battle for the EMA100 and the MACD line position is worrying.

The long-term price trend

There are two lines on the chart that intersected about January 23rd. The current upper of the two lines is the trend followed by the price between January 12th and February 9th, the other line is the long-term trend followed by the price since October. We see that the price on February 9 tested the support defined by the latter and the EMA200. In the meantime, the price has risen again and is even above the EMA100.

Also in the 240min chart, the indicators leave us with rather mixed feelings:

The MACD is below zero. Although the MACD line has recently been above the signal, it remains to be seen whether this will be sufficient to bring the MACD into positive territory. The RSI is at 50 and thus neutral. After all, the Chaikin oscillator is positive, but is currently falling.

Finally, let’s take a look at the 1D chart, which is slightly more hopeful:

The MACD is now clearly positive; both the MACD line and the signal are in positive territory. However, the MACD line is currently falling below the signal. The RSI is at 60 and is clearly bullish. Finally, the Chaikin oscillator is also positive and completes the bullish picture.

So, what are we going to do with these mixed signals? I am convinced that the current fight for the EMA100 on the first 60min chart is a very important fight that will determine the further price. If this should turn out positive, this would also set the signals on the 240min chart to a somewhat bullisher and thus reinforce the trend on the 1D chart.

Disclaimer: The price estimates presented on this page do not constitute recommendations to buy or sell. They are merely an analyst’s assessment.